Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
